Reflections on Poker and Las Vegas.

I’ll start by saying I thoroughly enjoy poker.  I have been playing for almost seven years.  I find it a fascinating mixture of mathematics and psychology.  When you study and employ the skills required to make this game of cards much more than about the cards, you begin to see layers upon layers of thought process.  Then you add the thrill of the gamble when skill must give way the randomness of the cards and it is a terribly interesting endeavor.  It’s like being engaged in mental warfare.  Beginning poker players focus on their own cards.  Then they learn to consider their opponent’s cards.  Intermediate players begin to consider what their opponent thinks their cards are.  Advanced players start to consider what their opponent thinks they think their opponents’ cards are.  I know that you know that I know that you know……

Poker is a game of personalities as much as it is a game of mathematical reality.  In a game of partial information, and intentional misinformation, the task is to find the right balance of aggressiveness, cunning, and discretion.  Making the big fold may not be as rewarding as making the big call, but in the long run of a major tournament, it is how you get deep.  Poker is a game of observations.  From the moment you sit down at the table you are sizing up your opponents and trying to get a feel for who they are and what they are doing.  You cannot go into a table with a set game plan.  You must go in with multiple game plans and then adjust to what your opponents are doing.  The optimal strategy changes by the moment.  The most successful players are those that most quickly adjust and most quickly realized when their opponents have adjusted and then readjust.  On many levels human behavior is relatively predictable.  You just have to know what to look for.

Poker is a social game, and in a social context there is much more information to gained by listening rather than talking.  I observed so much in the early stages of the tournament as there were many amateurs and quasi-pros in the field.  They talked too much.  They discussed hands after they played out.  They tried to show off how much they knew about the game.  The whole time I am taking notes.  How did they think about the hand?  What was their analysis?  I just nodded and agreed with them.  Later as the day went on I confirmed my mental notes with behaviors and decisions I saw them making.  Once I had a good read on them I knew how to exploit their thinking.  I was surprised by how much people were willing to give away.  Even some of the so-called Pros, seemed oblivious to how much information they were giving away. 

Poker is an everyman/woman “sport.”  There seem to be no boundaries to the types of people who like to play.  For me, one the most interesting things about playing poker is that often you are sitting around a table with eight other people that you would never have an excuse to sit down with.   And then you learn about them.  This is my laboratory for observing human behavior.  Here are some generalities I gleaned.  There are a LOT of very good, very young players.  These kids have studied the game at a mathematical level that I vaguely understand.  As they discuss these concepts I know enough to follow the conversation, but I haven’t done near the work they have in this type of analysis.  To hear them talk about hand ranges, equity, fold equity, implied odds and such is awesome.  I learned so much just by listening to them talk to each other during breaks.  Sometimes, however, they seemed to lose sight of the person they were playing against.  You could see their minds at work doing complex mathematical calculations when making their decisions.  Sometimes it was amazing how they “figured” out the best solution.  And most the time they were correct.  But when they were wrong it seemed to be because they failed to recognize that the player in the hand with them was not making decisions based on the mathematical realities, but instead were just playing.   They were not observing the human side of the game.

Some of these young players were very personable and down to earth.  Others were very arrogant.  The down to earth ones made it to day 5 and 6 (and further).  The arrogant ones seemed to find their way to the rail.  It takes a great deal of humility to be a good poker player.  You have to be willing to get outplayed from time to time.  You will get bluffed and you will make bad calls.  I felt like some of these kids felt they should win every hand.  Arrogance seemed to be punished over and over.  I think it gets in the way of the type of analysis that goes into playing each hand.

There were some pretty bad older dudes playing in this tournament.  (I say this as a 38 year old that was often one of the oldest players at my table)  Mostly these were guys older than 40 (usually nearer to 50 or older) who did not understand the math of the game and as a result were badly out played from time to time.  They seemed unable to adjust to the ebb and flow of the game.  They seemed to be offended by the aggressive play of the young players.  They felt they had to stand up to them and often did at just the wrong time. 

Most players were very nice, but those who did not seem very nice, didn’t seem to stay around very long.

Observation, Most people are not patient.  The WSOP main event has a very slow structure.  There is no need to be in a rush.  You cannot win the tournament on the first day, but you can lose it on the first day.    It is easy to feel you are in bad shape when others at your table have more chips than you, but there is so much time that you can be patient, establish an image, wait for cards, play in position and exploit your image.  This played into my strengths.

Playing live for 8-12 hours at a time takes an enormous amount of energy and focus.  My attention and skill set increased each day.  At the end of every day I was mentally exhausted. While mentally exhausting, the hours of relative physical inactivity are painful.  I lost five pounds while in Las Vegas because I was too nervous to eat.  I kept my energy level high with liquid meal supplements.  I worked out in the Rio Fitness center three times, but it was lame compared to the exercise I was used to getting.  Poker players need to combat this sedentary lifestyle with a disciplined workout routine.

It was very interesting talking to and listening to the “pros” discuss how they make their livelihood.  Most of these guys are not rolling in cash.  In fact, most of them are in what is called “make-up.”  They have backers who pay their entry fees and received percentages of their winnings.  If they fail to cash in the tournament they go into “make-up.”  Basically meaning they owe.  The next time they win, money goes towards make-up before they receive any payments.  Does any one else see a problem with this?  At my table late on day 5, the discussion was who was deepest in make up.  One guy said, “I have to get 90^th in this tournament just to get out of make-up.”  The next guy says, “that’s nothing; I am 150 deep” (that means 150,000 dollars).  Adam Levy (one of the top young pros) then laughed and then said, “I win, 250,” smiling the whole time.  I asked him.  “How does that work?  How do you make a living and pay your expenses?”  He said, “Oh, I have all of my own cash game action and all my endorsement money is separate from my backing deal.”  It still seems baffling to me.  These guys just seem to have very little regard for the value of a dollar.

I do not endorse anyone trying to play poker for a living.  These young kids who are using poker as their sole source of income are in a unique position.  They have no other responsibilities.  They can afford to go broke and often do.  When they do go broke, they borrow some money and start over again.  I had a long discussion with a 23 year-old college graduate who was a fulltime poker player.  I asked him how this happens.  He says he and most of his friends are terrible at bankroll management.  The variance in tournament poker is huge.  In cash games the income is more consistent, but most payers play above their bankroll.  If they run bad for a while they get into trouble.  Furthermore, he said they often have what he called “life leaks.”  They over spend away from the tables.  Living life in and around casinos gets expensive.  Travel expenses and bar tabs add up.  He said he was having a good year after getting out of make up.  I asked him if was siphoning off any of his poker money into other investments or savings; if he was building a non-poker side of his personal finances? He looked at me and asked, “Have you been talking to my father?” 

“No,” I replied, “but I am a father.”  Anyway these kids are very intelligent and most have a solid idea of what they are doing and what mistakes they are making.  They are not terribly careless and they are certainly not delusional.  They understand their strengths and weaknesses.  It is not that glamorous of a lifestyle.  With that said, I am certain I could make a living playing poker if I wanted to put in the work.  I am very conservative with my bankroll and I keep my poker economy separate from my real economy.  But for now I see this a pastime that can supplement my income. 

I do not endorse or suggest that anyone should gamble.  I always say you can only play with money you can afford to lose.  I do think however, card games are healthy pastimes.  I grew up playing cards games like hearts, spades, gin rummy and occasionally poker.  These are fun family times and I believe they help develop certain strategic thinking.  In his book, Cowboys Full: The Story of Poker,  Jim McManus discusses the history of poker and how poker has played a role in the history and politics of America.

For those who want to geek it up and follow me through my thinking on some specific hands and at specific spots during the tournament click here.  I also give some background on how I started playing poker.

Non- Poker Vegas Observations

Slots seem really boring and somewhat depressing.  I did not see one person playing slots who looked happy. 

Too many people still smoke.

There are a lot of low paying jobs in Las Vegas.

There are a lot of talented people in Las Vegas.  We saw two shows and I was impressed with both the talent on stage and the talent behind the scenes to produce these shows.

Red Rock Canyon is very interesting but very very hot mid-day in July.  Mt Charleston would have been better hiking (next year).

Vegas must one of the top ten places in the world for “people watching.”  The clientele downtown is very different than the clientele on the strip.

Too many people bring their kids to Vegas.  I know the big corporations who own Vegas try to sell Vegas as family friendly, but I don’t think it is.  Vegas is a huge money suck.  It is hedonistic, capitalistic, hot, not pedestrian friendly, and ….

Vegas is a place where adults who know what they are in for can go and spend their money.  Period.  It exists for no other reason than to entertain.  The shows are great, they tell me the food is good (I not much of a fine food connoisseur), the gambling is fun, the sights are interesting, but it is not quality family time.  Building sand castles at the beach is family fun.  Covering your kids’ eyes from the trucks on the strip advertizing “Girls in 15 minutes” and “all nude” is not family fun.  Yet everywhere I turned I saw people with their kids (and late at night too – what are they thinking?)  I think the Freemont street light show, the pools, and possibly some shows are the only thing my kids would enjoy in Las Vegas. (We saw the Cirque du Soliel – Beetles Love at the Mirage and they would like all the acrobatics – it was an awesome show).  Outside of Vegas, Red Rock Canyon and Mt Charleston are nice outings if it is not too hot. And I think the Hoover Dam and Grand Canyon excursions would be cool for kids. 

When we set out for Vegas, Lori wasn’t very interested in gambling.  She had never played blackjack, craps, or any of the other games.  And believe it or not, I am not what I would consider a big risk taker. (I know that sounds weird coming from a poker player)  But I like to play blackjack and I like to play craps.  I feel if you understand the basic strategies you can lose your money to the casino slowly thus stretching your entertainment dollar.  Well I am happy to report (maybe I shouldn’t be), that Lori likes to roll the dice and we did very well at the craps table (enough to go to two shows and pay for more than a few meals).  Even though we kept the bets small.  I broke even playing Blackjack.  We found one slots type machine that we liked (it was “deal or no deal” where you picked your suitcase and then played the game).

I lost a bit in my first and most likely last foray into sports betting.  We were in Vegas for the finale of the World Cup.  As a soccer coach it was very cool to be somewhere with a big crowd to watch the biggest single sporting event.  My son Declan had been doing a great job of predicting the winners of the games during the month long tournament.  So I called him and asked him who would win and what the score would be.  Now, I believe Declan went with his heart over his brain on this pick, but his coach is a Dutchman, so he was pulling for Holland.  So we went to Caesar’s Palace Sunday morning to watch the game.  I went to the Sports Book and made my first ever sports bet.  I put a whopping $20 on Holland and another $10 on the score 2-1.  The guy at the ticket counter said, “You are really picking against the octopus?  You know the Octopus has moved the line?” 

I replied, “that makes this a better odds bet, and besides, I have a monkey at home that said Holland would win.”

He said, “You have a monkey?”

“Yes, his name is Declan.”  Bye bye $30. Oh well the best team won.

I did fit in one short session of poker outside of the WSOP.  I sat for two hours in the Rio poker room and played in a $1/2 cash game and made a quick $230 (sometimes poker is easy).

Gambling is fun when losing money doesn’t hurt.  What makes gambling fun is the prospect of winning.  But it should be pretty obvious that Vegas wouldn’t exist if the house didn’t win.  So you have to treat the gambling money as an entertainment expense.  You have to be willing to lose the money.  If you win a bit then that’s great, take it and use it to go see a show.  That’s what Lori and I did.  In the long run the house always wins. 

Last observation - Some people should never gamble.